Public Opinion Polling
Statewide and regional tracking polls on candidates, ballot measures, and policy attitudes — fielded with mixed-mode samples and rigorously weighted demographics.
Wave 27 · Spring 2026 · Now Reporting
Understanding the
Understanding the
Future of the Southwest.
Arizona-focused polling, analytics, demographic research, and public opinion intelligence — built for journalists, campaigns, civic institutions, and serious investors.
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Voters Surveyed · 2025
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AZ Districts Modeled
0%
Forecast Accuracy · '24 Cycle
0
Years of AZ Field Work
About the Firm
A modern public opinion firm built for the American Southwest.
Frontier Data Group is a public opinion and analytics firm focused on the political, demographic, and economic evolution of Arizona and the broader Southwest — Nevada, New Mexico, and the high-growth metros of the interior west.
We pair institutional-grade polling methodology with proprietary voter file analytics, sentiment modeling, and economic indicators. Our work informs newsroom coverage, campaign strategy, infrastructure planning, and policy decisions across one of the fastest-changing regions in the country.
Headquartered in Phoenix, with field operations across Maricopa, Pima, and Yavapai counties.
01 · Standard
Transparent Methods
Every release publishes weighting, sample frame, and crosstabs. No black-box scoring.
02 · Standard
Mixed-Mode Sampling
Live phone, SMS-to-web, and address-based panels balanced for the modern electorate.
03 · Standard
Regionally Calibrated
Models tuned on a decade of Arizona-specific turnout and registration patterns.
04 · Standard
Independent Posture
Non-partisan by design. We work with newsrooms, campaigns, and policy clients across the spectrum.
Capabilities
Research disciplines, integrated under one analytical roof.
From statewide opinion tracking to district-level voter modeling, our practice areas are built to be combined — giving clients a single, coherent picture of where the Southwest is moving.
Demographic Analysis
Migration patterns, generational shifts, Latino electorate growth, and the changing composition of the Maricopa metroplex.
Election Research
Likely-voter modeling, primary turnout simulation, and post-election analysis grounded in voter file matched survey panels.
Infrastructure & Economic Sentiment
Tracking public attitudes toward water policy, housing, energy transition, and the build-out of Sun Belt manufacturing.
Voter Trend Analysis
Time-series modeling of partisan drift, registration churn, and attitudinal shifts across Arizona's swing geographies.
Strategic Intelligence
Bespoke briefings for executives, campaign principals, and institutional clients who need clarity, not noise.
Featured Research · Q2 2026
Where Arizona is moving — district by district, issue by issue.
Selected visualizations from our latest statewide field. Full crosstabs, weighting tables, and methodology notes are available to subscribers.
Generic Ballot — Arizona Statewide
Tracking margin among likely voters · Jan 2024 → Apr 2026 · n ≈ 1,100 per wave
Democratic candidate
Republican candidate
Margin of error: ±2.9 pts
Top Voter Issues
"Most important issue" · Statewide · April 2026
District Watchboard
Competitive AZ districts · 30-day movement
AZ-01
North Phoenix · Scottsdale
D +1.2
▲ 0.8
AZ-02
Northern Arizona · Flagstaff
R +3.4
▼ 0.6
AZ-04
Tempe · Mesa · Chandler
D +5.1
▲ 0.4
AZ-06
Southeast Tucson · Cochise
R +1.8
● 0.1
AZ-07
South Phoenix · Yuma
D +8.6
▲ 1.2
AZ-09
West Valley · Glendale
R +0.4
▼ 1.1
Maricopa Electorate — Composition Drift
Share of registered voters by cohort · 2014 → 2026 · AZ Secretary of State data, modeled
Boomer / Silent
Gen X
Millennial
Gen Z
New Registrants
Methodology
A research standard built on transparency.
Our models are documented, our weights are published, and our crosstabs are reproducible. We treat methodology as a public commitment — not a trade secret.
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M.01
Likely Voter Model
A composite likelihood score built from voter file history, self-reported intent, registration recency, and turnout regression on prior comparable cycles. Calibrated separately for primary, general, and special elections.
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M.02
Demographic Weighting
Iterative proportional fitting (raking) on age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, region, and party registration — anchored to the most recent Arizona Secretary of State and ACS five-year estimates.
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M.03
Mixed-Mode Field Design
Each statewide wave combines live agent calls, SMS-to-web invitations, and address-based panel recruitment to mitigate the coverage and response biases of any single mode.
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M.04
Transparency Standard
Every published release includes sample composition, mode breakdown, weighting targets, design effect, and full topline + crosstab files. We disclose sponsorship in all client-funded research.
Recent Reports
Field notes from the new Southwest.
A selection of recent briefings, white papers, and data essays from the Frontier research team.
The Maricopa Realignment: How the Suburbs Decided Arizona
A 14-county longitudinal study of suburban voting behavior between the 2018 and 2024 cycles, with implications for the upcoming midterms.
Read briefingSun Belt Migration & the New Arizona Voter
Net migration from California and the Pacific Northwest is reshaping the registration mix in the West Valley faster than any prior decade.
Read paperWater, Wages, and Worry: Sentiment Across the Central Valley
How Arizona households are weighing drought policy, semiconductor expansion, and rising housing costs in the same breath.
Read essayCommission a briefing for your team.
Newsrooms, campaigns, investors, and policy organizations partner with Frontier Data Group for clear-eyed reads on the Southwest. Tell us what you need to understand.