Step 01
Geographic Digital Recruitment
Respondents are recruited through geographically targeted digital placements across desktop, tablet, and mobile devices within the survey area.
New · 2026 Cycle
For the people …
who polling seems to miss.
Frontier Data Group is building a modern approach to political polling focused on transparency, representative sampling, and the voters often overlooked by traditional methods.
Transparent polling. Public methodology. No black boxes.
The FARS System
Frontier Adaptive Response Sampling
A modern polling methodology designed to improve representation, transparency, and voter modeling.
Step 02
Voter Validation
Responses are validated using geographic consistency checks, registration verification methods, turnout propensity indicators, and behavioral screening.
Step 03
Adaptive Weighting
Survey samples are balanced using demographic and political weighting benchmarks including age, gender, race and ethnicity, education, party registration, and prior voting behavior.
- Age
- Gender
- Race & ethnicity
- Education
- Party registration
- Prior voting behavior
Step 04
Likely Voter Modeling
Likely voter models incorporate turnout likelihood, political engagement, prior voting participation, and voter enthusiasm indicators.
Step 05
Transparency First
Frontier Data Group publishes methodology details, question wording, polling dates, and weighting categories publicly whenever possible.
Why this matters
We believe accurate polling requires reaching voters who are often overlooked by traditional research methods.
FARS · v3.2
Interactive Demo
How FARS Works
Move the controls below to see how adaptive weighting balances an under-represented raw sample into a more representative electorate. This is a visualization only — no polling results are shown.
Sample Balancing
Underrepresented voters → representative electorate
18-3433.6%
35-4927.9%
50-6422.2%
65+16.3%
District focus
AZ-1Geographic balancing visualization — illustrative.
Representativeness Index
conceptual94/ 100
Visualization Demo Only
Live controls
Adjust the model
50
Shifts the weighting from younger to older voters.
YoungerOlder
50
Share of college-educated respondents in the frame.
HS or lessCollege +
55
Strictness of the likely-voter cutoff.
LooseStrict
50
Balance of Democratic and Republican registrants.
Dem-leanRep-lean
Featured Polls
Field surveys, published in full.
Every Frontier Data Group release publishes methodology, weighting, and question wording alongside the toplines.
Arizona · 2026
AZ-01
North Phoenix · Scottsdale · Cave Creek
Coming Soon
Wave 01 · InauguralArizona Congressional District 1 Poll
Frontier Data Group's inaugural survey of Arizona's 1st Congressional District.
- Field dates
- May 14–18, 2026
- District
- AZ-01
- Sample
- 600 likely voters
- Methodology
- FARS
Mixed-mode · ABS + digital
About
Polling built for the modern electorate.
Frontier Data Group was founded to explore new approaches to public opinion research in an era of declining trust, changing voter behavior, and rapidly evolving communication technology.
Our work pairs institutional-grade methodology with a posture of radical transparency — designed for journalists, campaigns, consultants, and the voters often missed by traditional polling.
Concept
2023Frontier Data Group is conceived in response to widening gaps between published polls and on-the-ground voter sentiment in the Southwest.
Pilot
2024Mixed-mode pilot waves test geographic digital recruitment against traditional list-based sampling across Maricopa County.
FARS v3
2025Frontier Adaptive Response Sampling reaches its third revision with validated voter-file linkage and adaptive weighting.
AZ-01 Wave 01
2026The firm publishes its inaugural district survey of Arizona's 1st Congressional District with full methodology disclosure.
Standards & Commitments
Transparency, by document.
Open each card to read our research disclaimer, privacy and data protection commitments, participation terms, and transparency charter.